If you've wondered what the tennis landscape might look like when 34-year-oldSerena Williams finally decides to call it quits, the WTA finals in Singapore might provide an excellent sneak preview.
The field is set now, the elite eight led by No. 2-ranked Simona Halep, who has yet to win her first Grand Slam singles title. In fact, the WTA finals almost coalesced without a single 2015 Grand Slam singles champion in the field.
Williams won three of the four majors in 2015; Flavia Pennetta won the fourth, the US Open. Yet Pennetta didn't earn a berth in Singapore until Wednesday in Moscow in this final week of qualification. The field does contain two tested Grand Slam event winners, though: third-seeded Maria Sharapova and No. 4Petra Kvitova.
The WTA final might be days distant, but something we can call "the Williams effect" kicked in weeks ago -- the moment the website of the China Open announced that she was pulling out of the upcoming Asian tournaments and stowing her rackets for the year. It's impossible to gauge exactly what impact that announcement had on the ensuing events in tennis. The variable are simply too numerous. But here's something to consider.
With Williams out of the picture, Garbine Muguruza stepped in to complete an impressive resurgence with a win in the China Open. Muguruza seemed to lose her bearings after her breakthrough run to the Wimbledon final -- where the 22-year-old was beaten by Williams, coincidentally -- but here she is, seeded No. 2 in the WTA finals and touted as the probable leader of a transitional generation.
That fits a narrative the WTA likes. When Serena calls it a career, a new generation will take over. But is that a realistic evaluation of the situation on the ground?
Think about this: The week after the China Open, Agnieszka Radwanska, who lost the 2002 Wimbledon final to Williams, won in Tianjin. Combined with her semifinal appearance at the China Open, the title was enough to vault Radwanska up and into a No. 5 slot in Singapore.
Given how fitfully Radwanska has played for so much of this year, the absence of Williams clearly provided her with a motivational boost.
And then there's this. It was easier to qualify for a top-eight position with Serena out of the way at tournaments and having recused herself from Singapore. But also, Radwanska and her peers know they have a much better chance to do well -- perhaps really well -- in Singapore (and by implication, beyond) with Williams out of the picture.
The real beneficiaries of Williams' absence and, eventually, her retirement, just might be the high-grade pros she has suppressed for so long. The future by definition always belongs to younger generations, but in this case perhaps not so fast.
There are plenty of gifted young athletes out there in the WTA: Madison Keys,Belinda Bencic, Ana Konjuh and Jelena Ostapenko among them. But none of them came close to qualifying for Singapore. The alternates will be 26-year-oldTimea Bacsinszky, who already quit the tour once to work in a hotel, and 35-year-old Venus Williams. Including Serena, that makes 11 players -- only one of whom is under 23 (Muguruza).
Another thing that might make any "changing of the guard" a more glacial process than the expression implies is the quality of the WTA veterans. Halep is 24; Caroline Wozniacki and Kvitova are just 25; Victoria Azarenka and Radwanska are 26; Ana Ivanovic and Angelique Kerber are 27; Maria Sharapova and Lucie Safarova are 28. Jelena Jankovic is 30, extremely fit and seemingly durable.
All these women are capable of playing a lot more tennis. And all of them have been under Serena's thumb for years now. When that pressure is lifted, they will have chances to make up for missed opportunities.
Absent Williams, Sharapova would seem to be the woman to beat regardless of the rankings. She has far more big-match experience -- and poise -- than any other woman contender. Only Kvitova has matched her in winning multiple Grand Slam events.
But Sharapova has a problem that has short- and long-term ramifications. She has made one false start after another since losing to Serena at Wimbledon, and injuries forced her to withdraw from every tournament she entered this year (including the US Open) and she has started exactly one match since early July. That was in Wuhan at the end of September, and she had to retire in the third set with an injured arm.
The main question about Sharapova as the WTA finals approach is not "Can she win?" but "Will she play?"
The long-term ramifications are equally clear. Lack of match play, the inability to train properly and the burden of injury might have robbed Sharapova of confidence. She might be head and shoulders above all her peers (with the exception of Serena) as a competitor, but unless she gets healthy and develops some continuity, don't expect her to step in to become a stabilizing force in a competitive and chaotic WTA.
Youth movements are always exciting, and fun to behold. But the WTA has a bumper crop of excellent -- and in some ways frustrated -- veterans. The future belongs to the young. But maybe not just yet.